Infact it was during the year 1995 when the BJP was trying
very hard to set it’s feet at Maharashtra Maharashtra has about 42 seats of the
Lok Sabha and it was imperative for the BJP to set it’s feet their. However the
local leadership of the BJP were finding it very hard to set iyt’s feet there.
It was the far vision of Mr Munde who spoke to Mr Pramod Mahajan about
extending the hands of friendship to the Shi Sena and after a few round of
discussion it was Mr Mahajan who advised Mr Munde to meet the Shiv Sena Leaders
at Maharashtra and take the move positively forward.
It was Mr Munde who was successful in meeting Mr Thakeray
and thus a meeting between the top honchos of the BJP and the Shiv Sena took
place in 1995 . It was very fruitful as the infereunce that came out of it was
that the two parties will amalgamate under the NDA and fight all the future
elections together That set the tone for the BJP to lay their feet at
Maharashtra and it found a beautiful ally in the Sainiks to inch ahead at
Maharashtra . Though many give this credit to Mr Mahajan of the BJP for the
alliance to take place actually it was the BRAIN of Mr Munde to have exhibited
the lead and transform this into a POTENT
force of Maharashtra .
“ HINDUTVA ” the
common idea and “ Marathi Astitva ” the Regional plank
Pic- Mr Atal Behari
Vajapayee and Mr Bala Sahab Thakeray
Actually Mr Thakeray was alone who was fighting TOOTH-AND-NAIL all lone to strengthen
the feet of the Hindus at Maharashtra and he was REALLY fighting to uphold the IMAGE
and the PRESTIGE of the Hindus
at Maharashtra To be frank Maharashtra under the Ministership of Mr Antulay
between the period 1978 to 1980 was as good as sold to the MILLIONAIRES of the petro-dollar
honchos but it was Mr Bala Sahib who single handedly saved it totally going
into the hands of those honchos Infact he was a cartoonist at the Indian Express
at once upon a time and was very close as a friend to Mr R K Laxman. He learned
the the tricks of CARTOONIST and the ESSENCE
of CARTOON from him and soon he became
a KING in the trade of framing the
cartoons in terms of the caricature.
Bala sahib Thakeray deserted the Indian Express in 1966
sometimes after the demise of Mr Lal Bahadur Shashtri and formed a party by the
name of Shiv Sena The name Shiv symbolized the GREAT Maratha Warrior Maharaj Shivaji and the Sena
was the WARRIORS that he called them , the one’s who were joining the party and
were spending their time and effort to make the party strong
It took about 19 years for Mr Thakeray to make this party a force to reckon with at Maharashtra any
by 1986 he was a household name in Maharashtra and particularly at Mumbai . He
really was the LION of Maharashtra
when it came to ROAR for the Marathi
manoos at Mumbai , now, and for the
Hindus at all over India He bluntly believed that here at India the rights of
the Hindus slowly but surely was being snatched in a very measured manner by
the one’s who were trying to squeeze the Hindus and that he would fight for the
Hindus so that they did not feel left alone and dejected HINDUISM
THUS WAS REVIEVED BY HIM AND HE GAVE A LIFE BY INJECTING SOME SPIRIT OF
HINDUSISM IN THE HINDUS
When Mr Thakeray met Mr Vajapayee and before them Mr Advani-
he was far more convinced that in the BJP HE HAD FOUND A EQUAL PARTNER WHO AND
WHOSE FUNDAMENTALISM AND THE ESSENCE OF FORMING THE PARTY WAS SAME- IT WAS “
HINDUSIM ” That gave him the STRENGTH by the PACIFIC OCEAN to amalgamate
his party with the BJP and to fight the elections etc with the help of one
another at Maharashtra Thus it was from the mid of the 90’s that the Shiv
Sena and the BJP were fighting all the battles together at Maharashtra
Well as far as the national attrition was concerned it was
he who was making all the moves at Maharashtra along with the top honchos of
the BJP where Mr Advani was the CENTRE-OF-FULCRUM and Mr Vajapayee was
the COG-IN-THE-WHEEL However at
Maharashtra he needed a VOICE as
exactly as his, he needed a MAN as
exactly as him and he needed a TRUST
who would be the TRUST that either
Lord Krishna had with Arjun or Lord Krishna had it with his friend Sudama . He
got one from his family in Raj Thakeray and he moulded Raj Thakeray just as
what he was and what he wanted him to be Under the tutelage of Mr Bala
Sahab , Raj Thakeray became a MAN TO CONJURE WITH He was the XEROX COPY of Mr Bala Sahab and soon
the RAYS of the Shiv Sena started
melting the bodies of the adversaries that Mr Bala Sahib and the opponent could
have
Early Dawn of 21st Century : Sena- Bjp forms it’s
Ist Government at the state
Led by an astute honchos of the BJP at the centre and OILED
like a well-oiled machine the BJP-Shiv Sena formed it’s first coalition
Government at Maharashtra and Mr Joshi was the first Chief Minister of the
coalition However thereafter the coalition had to sit in the opposition lest
again in 2014 the BJP- Shiv Sena again came back to power with Mr Devendra
Phadnavis leading the coalition. Infact from the end of 2016 started the
frivction and slowly a chasm started arising within the coalition and after the
death of Bala Sahab the situation started worsening It went to such an extent
that the Shiv Sena pulled out it’s Minister from the NDA at the centre but kept
on supporting the BJP at the state The BJP-Sena coalition saw the FIRST Chief
Minister in Mr Devendra Phadnavis to individually complete his terms fotr five
years after 2014 as everytime there use to be a change in the Chief Minister
and the post at Maharashtra after the UPA took it over for a period of 15 years
from 1999 to 2014.
Election 2019: Seeds
of discord sown
Even if the BJP had pulled itself in the state with the
outside support of the Shiv Sena, the Sainiuks and the BJP went together for
the national polls and they again came out in a creative and a massive manner
under the stewardship of Mr Modi .However the discords started making the gaps in the walls at the state . Looking
into the equation at the state and totally realizing that neither of the party
could manage to win a 2/3 majority at the state they formed an idea to fight
the election together and both the party saw losing many of it’s seats.
The BJP which won 123
seats five years ago won only 105 this time and the Sainiks were just on the
edge of their last time account but in terms of the STRIKING RATE the BJP improved it’s striking rate and it stood at 64% whereas the Sainik’s were placed at
45% . This was a HUGE gap by all it account . Together the
amalgamation mustered the magic number and from here rose the QUESTION of sharing the power on the basis of 50%-50% with the Sainik’s ruling
it for the first five years . It was from here and this point that the
cards which had the game for the combo did not have any TRUMPS and this is
where the game was lost by some and won by some
Equivalent and
rotation of the power not agreed upon : The two way away and part for once
The BJP was fixed to NOT to share the power The Sainik’s
were hell-bound on it There was no compromise for anything or for anybody to let
any space being taken away for the other Ultimately Mr Sanjay raut moved from
the nook to the corner to garner the support from the NCP and the Congress and there were certain conditions that
the NCP laid before it formed the idea of supporting the Sainik’s to take the
LOATHE and the LEAD to foem a Government at the state
Infact it has been Mr Sanjay Raut who is responsible for the
Saimik’s to lean away with the BJP The reason is the Sainik’s are fast losing
the ground at Maharashtra From a position of 78 seats that they won when they
laid their first amalgamated Government at Maharashtra way back when the two
parties rules the state for a period of five years the Sainiks have fallen down
to below 55
The LOSS-VARIANCE
RATIO :
The equation is
simple The Loss in terms of variance is 55/78 x100= 7.05% This according to the
THEORY of POWER-EQUATION is a HEAVY LOSS that they have suffered in the last 20
years at the state .The Loss Variance of the BJP is 105/68X100 = 154% which in fact
is a positivity by 54% for the BJP over 100% . In the time when the combo ruled
the state for five years when Bala Sahab was alive the BJP had only 68 seats
then, and now it has 105 This is a HEAVY
SWING that we call oit in the theory of POWER- EQUATION when we take the
creditability of the account In other wors the BJP is SWELLING and GROWING in
terms of everything but the Sainiks are shrinking in terms of many a things .
In other words Mr
Uddhav Thakeray FRANKLY is losing his grounds in the state and this is
a HEAVY matter for the Sainik’s To restore the place of the Sainik’s at the
state and to infuse some LIFE in them he felt that a roatational policy would
help the Sainik’s to cover the ground. Hence he was more prudent about taking
the role in terms of the sharing basis which did not meet the eye of the BJP
BJP’s Ratio Analysis
& it’s Variance, Co-Relation in it’s ratio with the Sainik’s - :
As a party alone the
BJP is on the rise From being only 68 , they went upto 123 . Their positive
trend in terms of co-relation to what it was some twenty years ago at
Maharashtra stood at 123/68X100=
180.80% . This time around they had about 29% of the total vote share
while their partner had about 19% The co-relation
analysis shows that the BJP in terms of it’s relation with it’s voters is 29/19X48
= 73/100 = 7.32% That means that for every 10 person which were with the
BJP about 8 person are still with them Only two percent have
transferred the vote to the Sainiks because of the amalgamation of fighting the
election together . In retrospect the Sainik’s stand at 19/29X48 = 31.44 /100= 3.144 which is roughly three It means
that every seven ( 07 ) person has
shifted his vote from the Shiv Sena to the others THIS IS A HUGE REVERSE FOR THE SAINIKS The difference between the two
party in term of the Co-relation analysis with the voters stands at 7.32- 3.14= 4.18 This means that
the BJP has a space of getting atleast 4
voters at the maximum from it’s contemporary at the maximum and it can get
atleast one in the MINIMUM to say the least This should be
a PANIC BELL BUTTON for the Sainik’s and perhaps this has made the sainik’s to
somehow rule the state with their men at the HELM for as much as possible
The Sainik’s and the one’s who have got along with them think that by
dong so they atleast will have some place for them to exist as the BJP roller
is rolling them as the roadroller rolls the roads while it is under
construction .
Inference that it
emerges from the study-::
1). The MNS under Raj
Thakeray now gets an even chance There are as many as four voters who can turn
their vote from the Sainik’s to anybody The MNS can now play their game to get
some It is here that Raj Thakeray
can pull up the socks
2). The BJP alone if it can manure it’s field from now can
afford to go alone in the next election . It has only to gain If it gains that ONE PERCENT of the CO-RELATION swing in its favour it’s percentahe of votes can go
pass the 30% marks That could be a HUGE
swing in it’s favour If it falls by a few votes it can pull it through the
Independents and if required the MNS
courtesy Raj Thakeray
3). Raj Thakeray has to come to the parliament to spread his
voice in a very POSITIVE manner If
he sticks to his state he will loose his future at the state If he comes to the
parliament and raises his voice POSITIVELY
his party will do what the Dushyant
Chautala and company did it at Haryana
4). The BJP should THINK of EKLA CHALO RE at Maharashtra Mr Phadnavis has to travel all the
places where the BJP has lost it’s seat to study and repair the roof He has to TARGET the BASTIONS at the places where the NCP is strong at Maharashtra especially at Sangli-Satara- Sholapur belt .This is the place from where the BJP
should pick up as many as seven seats The
NCP has picked about five at Nagpur and a few at Gondia which are the STRONG
belt of the BJP This will give a HEAVY blow to the NCP .In the same
vein the the BJP has to be very upsurging at certain bnelts at places at
Vidharbha where the Chavan’s are the
kingpin This is a MUST
5). Without the BJP the Shiv Sena will be NEVER able to do anything spectacular
This they know it Hence they still have NOT
come out of the NDA. However the BJP can go all alone at Maharashtra
There is NO fear that ought to exist
for the BJP now or for the future at the
National level of election or at the state level of election
6). From now
onwards the Shiv sena will have to be at the run-and-loot-stage It cannot now
leave the NCP where Mr Pawar will have to hold the Shiv Sainiks tightly
That is NOT going to be that easy for the Sainik’s to be assured of. The
POLITICAL diffeernces in terms of IDEOLOGY will eat them on many a FRONT if
they keep on adjusting or they will have to come out of the same.This gives a CHANCE to MNS now to spread
it’s wing .
Congress : It has
nothing to GAIN and MORE to loose
The Congress has nothing to gain of this amalgamation at
Maharashtra Their EQUATION is
NOT worth at all even to
calculate it They will remain at the number four position If Raj Thakeray takes
a POSITIVE move the Congress
would suffer the most To be in the HUNT
they would play the role of the facilitator but overall they will have nothing
more to gain for themselves
One would see the
HARDCORE believers of HINDU’S moving away from the Shiv Sainiks to the camp of
the BJP and there would be many from the Shiv Sena who would desert them in the
days to come .That is it
A few may even join the MNS as well That is ADVANTAGE Mr Raj
Thakeray
“ The BJP played a “
BLIND-CARD ” and it has PLAYED it to PERFECTION as my ANALYSIS points out
Regards
Shyamal Bhattacharjee
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