The Maharashtra Imbroglio- Certain Uncertain, “ FUTURE IMPEFECT ” – BJP plays a “ BLIND ” card




Infact it was during the year 1995 when the BJP was trying very hard to set it’s feet at Maharashtra Maharashtra has about 42 seats of the Lok Sabha and it was imperative for the BJP to set it’s feet their. However the local leadership of the BJP were finding it very hard to set iyt’s feet there. It was the far vision of Mr Munde who spoke to Mr Pramod Mahajan about extending the hands of friendship to the Shi Sena and after a few round of discussion it was Mr Mahajan who advised Mr Munde to meet the Shiv Sena Leaders at Maharashtra and take the move positively forward.
It was Mr Munde who was successful in meeting Mr Thakeray and thus a meeting between the top honchos of the BJP and the Shiv Sena took place in 1995 . It was very fruitful as the infereunce that came out of it was that the two parties will amalgamate under the NDA and fight all the future elections together That set the tone for the BJP to lay their feet at Maharashtra and it found a beautiful ally in the Sainiks to inch ahead at Maharashtra . Though many give this credit to Mr Mahajan of the BJP for the alliance to take place actually it was the BRAIN of Mr Munde to have exhibited the lead and transform this into a POTENT force of Maharashtra .

“ HINDUTVA ” the common idea and “ Marathi Astitva ” the Regional plank

Pic- Mr Atal Behari Vajapayee and Mr Bala Sahab Thakeray

Actually Mr Thakeray was alone who was fighting TOOTH-AND-NAIL all lone to strengthen the feet of the Hindus at Maharashtra and he was REALLY fighting to uphold the IMAGE and the PRESTIGE of the Hindus at Maharashtra To be frank Maharashtra under the Ministership of Mr Antulay between the period 1978 to 1980 was as good as sold to the MILLIONAIRES of the petro-dollar honchos but it was Mr Bala Sahib who single handedly saved it totally going into the hands of those honchos Infact he was a cartoonist at the Indian Express at once upon a time and was very close as a friend to Mr R K Laxman. He learned the  the tricks of CARTOONIST and the ESSENCE of CARTOON from him and soon he became a KING in the trade of framing the cartoons in terms of the caricature.



Bala sahib Thakeray deserted the Indian Express in 1966 sometimes after the demise of Mr Lal Bahadur Shashtri and formed a party by the name of Shiv Sena The name Shiv symbolized the GREAT Maratha Warrior Maharaj Shivaji and the Sena was the WARRIORS that he called them , the one’s who were joining the party and were spending their time and effort to make the party strong
It took about 19 years for Mr Thakeray to make this party a force to reckon with at Maharashtra any by 1986 he was a household name in Maharashtra and particularly at Mumbai . He really was the LION of Maharashtra when it came to ROAR for the Marathi manoos at Mumbai , now, and for the Hindus at all over India He bluntly believed that here at India the rights of the Hindus slowly but surely was being snatched in a very measured manner by the one’s who were trying to squeeze the Hindus and that he would fight for the Hindus so that they did not feel left alone and dejected  HINDUISM THUS WAS REVIEVED BY HIM AND HE GAVE A LIFE BY INJECTING SOME SPIRIT OF HINDUSISM IN THE HINDUS

When Mr Thakeray met Mr Vajapayee and before them Mr Advani- he was far more convinced that in the  BJP HE HAD FOUND A EQUAL PARTNER WHO AND WHOSE FUNDAMENTALISM AND THE ESSENCE OF FORMING THE PARTY WAS SAME- IT WAS “ HINDUSIM ” That gave him the STRENGTH by the PACIFIC OCEAN to amalgamate his party with the BJP and to fight the elections etc with the help of one another at Maharashtra Thus it was from the mid of the 90’s that the Shiv Sena and the BJP were fighting all the battles together at Maharashtra




Well as far as the national attrition was concerned it was he who was making all the moves at Maharashtra along with the top honchos of the BJP where Mr Advani was the CENTRE-OF-FULCRUM and Mr Vajapayee was the COG-IN-THE-WHEEL However at Maharashtra he needed a VOICE as exactly as his, he needed a MAN as exactly as him and he needed a TRUST who would be the TRUST that either Lord Krishna had with Arjun or Lord Krishna had it with his friend Sudama . He got one from his family in Raj Thakeray and he moulded Raj Thakeray just as what he was and what he wanted him to be Under the tutelage of Mr Bala Sahab , Raj Thakeray became a  MAN TO CONJURE WITH He was the XEROX COPY of Mr Bala Sahab and soon the RAYS of the Shiv Sena started melting the bodies of the adversaries that Mr Bala Sahib and the opponent could have

Early Dawn of  21st Century : Sena- Bjp forms it’s Ist Government at the state

Led by an astute honchos of the BJP at the centre and OILED like a well-oiled machine the BJP-Shiv Sena formed it’s first coalition Government at Maharashtra and Mr Joshi was the first Chief Minister of the coalition However thereafter the coalition had to sit in the opposition lest again in 2014 the BJP- Shiv Sena again came back to power with Mr Devendra Phadnavis leading the coalition. Infact from the end of 2016 started the frivction and slowly a chasm started arising within the coalition and after the death of Bala Sahab the situation started worsening It went to such an extent that the Shiv Sena pulled out it’s Minister from the NDA at the centre but kept on supporting the BJP at the state The BJP-Sena coalition saw the FIRST Chief Minister in Mr Devendra Phadnavis to individually complete his terms fotr five years after 2014 as everytime there use to be a change in the Chief Minister and the post at Maharashtra after the UPA took it over for a period of 15 years from 1999 to 2014.

Election 2019: Seeds of discord sown


Even if the BJP had pulled itself in the state with the outside support of the Shiv Sena, the Sainiuks and the BJP went together for the national polls and they again came out in a creative and a massive manner under the stewardship of Mr Modi .However the discords started making  the gaps in the walls at the state . Looking into the equation at the state and totally realizing that neither of the party could manage to win a 2/3 majority at the state they formed an idea to fight the election together and both the party saw losing many of it’s seats.

The BJP  which won 123 seats five years ago won only 105 this time and the Sainiks were just on the edge of their last time account but in terms of the STRIKING RATE the BJP improved it’s striking rate and it stood at 64% whereas the Sainik’s were placed at 45% . This was a HUGE gap by all it account . Together the amalgamation mustered the magic number and from here rose the QUESTION of sharing the power on the basis of 50%-50% with the Sainik’s ruling it for the first five years . It was from here and this point that the cards which had the game for the combo did not have any TRUMPS and this is where the game was lost by some and won by some

Equivalent and rotation of the power not agreed upon : The two way away and part for once




The BJP was fixed to NOT to share the power The Sainik’s were hell-bound on it There was no compromise for anything or for anybody to let any space being taken away for the other Ultimately Mr Sanjay raut moved from the nook to the corner to garner the support from the NCP and the Congress and there were certain conditions that the NCP laid before it formed the idea of supporting the Sainik’s to take the LOATHE and the LEAD to foem a Government at the state


Infact it has been Mr Sanjay Raut who is responsible for the Saimik’s to lean away with the BJP The reason is the Sainik’s are fast losing the ground at Maharashtra From a position of 78 seats that they won when they laid their first amalgamated Government at Maharashtra way back when the two parties rules the state for a period of five years the Sainiks have fallen down to below 55

The LOSS-VARIANCE RATIO :


 The equation is simple The Loss in terms of variance is 55/78 x100= 7.05% This according to the THEORY of POWER-EQUATION is a HEAVY LOSS that they have suffered in the last 20 years at the state .The Loss Variance of the BJP is 105/68X100 = 154% which in fact is a positivity by 54% for the BJP over 100% . In the time when the combo ruled the state for five years when Bala Sahab was alive the BJP had only 68 seats then, and now it has 105 This is  a HEAVY SWING that we call oit in the theory of POWER- EQUATION when we take the creditability of the account In other wors the BJP is SWELLING and GROWING in terms of everything but the Sainiks are shrinking in terms of many a things .

In other words Mr Uddhav Thakeray FRANKLY is losing his grounds in the state and this is a HEAVY matter for the Sainik’s To restore the place of the Sainik’s at the state and to infuse some LIFE in them he felt that a roatational policy would help the Sainik’s to cover the ground. Hence he was more prudent about taking the role in terms of the sharing basis which did not meet the eye of the BJP

BJP’s Ratio Analysis & it’s Variance, Co-Relation in it’s ratio with the Sainik’s  - :

As a party alone the BJP is on the rise From being only 68 , they went upto 123 . Their positive trend in terms of co-relation to what it was some twenty years ago at Maharashtra stood at 123/68X100= 180.80% . This time around they had about 29% of the total vote share while their partner had about 19% The co-relation analysis shows that the BJP in terms of it’s relation with it’s voters is 29/19X48  = 73/100 = 7.32% That means that for every 10 person which were with the BJP about 8 person are still with them Only two percent have transferred the vote to the Sainiks because of the amalgamation of fighting the election together . In retrospect the Sainik’s stand at 19/29X48 = 31.44 /100= 3.144 which is roughly three It means that every seven ( 07 ) person has shifted his vote from the Shiv Sena to the others  THIS IS A HUGE REVERSE FOR THE SAINIKS  The difference between the two party in term of the Co-relation analysis with the voters stands at 7.32- 3.14= 4.18 This means that the BJP has a space of getting atleast 4 voters at the maximum from it’s contemporary at the maximum and it can get atleast one in the MINIMUM to say the least This should be a PANIC BELL BUTTON for the Sainik’s and perhaps this has made the sainik’s to somehow rule the state with their men at the HELM for as much as possible  The Sainik’s and the one’s who have got along with them think that by dong so they atleast will have some place for them to exist as the BJP roller is rolling them as the roadroller rolls the roads while it is under construction .

Inference that it emerges from the study-::

1). The MNS under Raj Thakeray now gets an even chance There are as many as four voters who can turn their vote from the Sainik’s to anybody The MNS can now play their game to get some It is here that Raj Thakeray can pull up the socks
2). The BJP alone if it can manure it’s field from now can afford to go alone in the next election . It has only to gain If it gains that ONE PERCENT of the CO-RELATION swing in its favour it’s percentahe of votes can go pass the 30% marks That could be a HUGE swing in it’s favour If it falls by a few votes it can pull it through the Independents and if required the MNS courtesy Raj Thakeray
3). Raj Thakeray has to come to the parliament to spread his voice in a very POSITIVE manner If he sticks to his state he will loose his future at the state If he comes to the parliament and raises his voice POSITIVELY his party will do what the Dushyant Chautala and company did it at Haryana
4). The BJP should THINK of EKLA CHALO RE at Maharashtra Mr Phadnavis has to travel all the places where the BJP has lost it’s seat to study and repair the roof He has to TARGET the BASTIONS at the places where the NCP is strong at Maharashtra especially at Sangli-Satara- Sholapur  belt .This is the place from where the BJP should pick up as many as seven seats The NCP has picked about five at Nagpur and a few at Gondia which are the STRONG belt of the BJP This will give a HEAVY blow to the NCP .In the same vein the the BJP has to be very upsurging at certain bnelts at places at Vidharbha where the Chavan’s are the kingpin This is a MUST
5). Without the BJP the Shiv Sena will be NEVER able to do anything spectacular This they know it Hence they still have NOT come out of the NDA. However the BJP can go all alone at Maharashtra There is NO fear that ought to exist for the BJP now or for the future at the National level of election or at the state level of election
6). From now onwards the Shiv sena will have to be at the run-and-loot-stage It cannot now leave the NCP where Mr Pawar will have to hold the Shiv Sainiks tightly That is NOT going to be that easy for the Sainik’s to be assured of. The POLITICAL diffeernces in terms of IDEOLOGY will eat them on many a FRONT if they keep on adjusting or they will have to come out of the same.This gives a CHANCE to MNS now to spread it’s wing .
Congress : It has nothing to GAIN and MORE to loose

The Congress has nothing to gain of this amalgamation at Maharashtra Their EQUATION is NOT worth at all even to calculate it They will remain at the number four position If Raj Thakeray takes a POSITIVE move the Congress would suffer the most To be in the HUNT they would play the role of the facilitator but overall they will have nothing more to gain for themselves
One would see the HARDCORE believers of HINDU’S moving away from the Shiv Sainiks to the camp of the BJP and there would be many from the Shiv Sena who would desert them in the days to come .That is it
A few may even join the MNS as well That is ADVANTAGE Mr Raj Thakeray
“ The BJP played a “ BLIND-CARD ” and it has PLAYED it to PERFECTION as my ANALYSIS points out

Regards

Shyamal Bhattacharjee



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