What will be the political
implication of a BJP-MNS tie up in Maharashtra?
They say that THIS IS THE TALK OF THE TOWN. However when I take the accounts of the future political scenario of Maharashtra and the election that it throws, then , it become the statement or the adage like TALK OF THE STATE.
There are a lot of mystery and a lot of mystic that could be thrown on the question whether who would be actually the ruler of Maharashtra in the next and after the next state election and what would be the future of the Shiv Sena that was founded by Bala Sahab Thakeray.
In real and actual WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THE STATES INCASE THE BJP SHARES SEAT WITH MNS FOR THE STATE ELECTION.
In my opinion and if my reading that holds , this is it that would happen -:
If the BJP-MNS tie up happens, these are the
political implications in Maharashtra.
1.
MNS will invoke the legacy left behind by Bala
Saheb Thackeray and claim himself the legal heir too of his politics, because
Uddhav is totally going against his ideology. Also he has let down his father
by aligning with Congress. SS will become weaker to that extent and in future
Uddhav whether he contests alone or in alliance with Congress will not get the
full support of the Shiv Sainiks.
2.
In NDA, MNS will take the place of Shiv Sena.
Being a better speaker and bolder, will overshadow Uddhav and Shiv Sena in
Maharashtra. He will also push Shiv Sena of Uddav towards the secular forces.
Thereby Shiv Sena loses its identity as a Hindutva force.
3.
In Jharkhand and Haryana BJP needed only two or
three percentage points to produce victory. In most of the seats the party lost
by a wisker. If MNS is able to garner even 8% to 10% BJP along with its own
32%, will get majority in the next election. The three party alliance will eat
dust once again in a contest.
4.
If MNS forms an alliance with BJP, not only Shiv
Sena, but also the Congress & NCP should be worried, because it will affect
them too. Many disgruntled Shiv Sena MLAs may jump towards MNS. There is a
possibility of this alliance having a precipitous fall.
5.
If after MNS enters into an alliance with BJP,
Shiv Sena may be dumped by Congress and NCP or will not get the importance it
is getting now. Congress and NCP may find SS a drag and may wind up its
alliance with SS in future. If it happens, SS will get extinct and become
history. Without support, Shiv Sena cannot stay relevant.
6.
If MNS forms an alliance with BJP and gets good
response among the public, Congress may find SS fatal for their own existence
or they may find SS as of any use for them. They may distance from SS .
Any alliance with MNS would be a disaster for BJP.
Can the BJP-MNS alliance win the 2024 Maharashtra elections?
Matrices often throws questions that are sometimes unique to feel and sense it before coming out with an answer and at times some of them are simply intriguing that throws something very complex in terms of the answer and the one that completely fails to come out with a proper answer is Can the BJP-MNS alliance win the 2024 Maharashtra elections?
The answer is based on the philosophies that Mr Raj Thakeray possesses. Here are the intrigues and the solution of the complex problems that surfaces but brings about a clear solution to the same.
Politics And Principles Of Mr Raj Thakeray - ::
The politics of politicians like Raj Thackery is based on hate. One day they would hate North Indians and another day they talk about Hindutwa. Most of the North Indians who were beaten by MNS goons and most of the North Indian who lost their livelyhood in 2008-09 were Hindus. At that time I was not working , but was stationed at Nashik, for some assignmnet of a project though one could construe that I was working in Nashik (the main support base of Nashik) and I had seen the hostility of MNS goons against us.
One fine day I saw some Bihari's celebrating Chhath Puja, and I was with one of the family from Bihar who were my good friends, so I was also taken as a Bihari Babu . In between after the Chhatt Pooja, I had to come to bangalore for some personal work, and I had again returned to Nashik. I returned to Nashik in 2009 by Pawan Express. The taxi/auto drivers (at that time most of them were MNS supporters) at the railway station were very hostile to us , thinking that I was a North Indian or a Bihari Babu, and for the first time, I experienced a different environment in my own country. In 2008 I was frequently moving to Pune from Bangalore for some marketing job, however I was not studying in any college in Pune. They were many at Pune who felt like I was studying over there which was NOT .
One
external just asked my name and my home state and asked me to go (without
asking any question) and just gave me a passing mark saying that why was I not needed at Maharashtra and what was I suited for Maharashtra . At that time I was forced
to feel that being Bihari was a crime. If BJP allies with Raj Thackrey then
it's bound to suffer losses in Bihar and UP.
Now coming to the political aspect of the question. MNS's vote share in the 2019 Assembly election was 2,25% and their vote share in the 2014 assembly election was 3.17%. BJP will hardly get any advantage in aligning with Raj Thackrey. Whatever Raj Thackrey does, he will not become a bigger Hindu mascot than Modi and Yogi. Raj Thackrey is being used by BJP to fight Uddhav Thackrey and BJP may not go beyond that. And this is a different BJP under Modi and Shah. This apart everyday Baba Yogi Adityanath is growing stronger by seconds, by minutes and by hours within the B J P and almost at every places at Uttar Pradesh .
This new BJP doesn't give any space to allies and always tries to grow at the expense of its allies. Aligning with MNS would mean giving political space to MNS to grow at its own expense. Just a few years ago, the same Raj Thackery was abusing Modi left and centre. At the best BJP may leave 5-10 seats for MNS but Raj Thackrey will not accept that offer. Even a smaller party like Apna Dal or Rajbhar’s party are more important in their own state than MNS in Maharashtra. So, I don't see an alliance possibility between BJP and MNS. Also, the importance of Yogi in BJP is increasing day by day and Modi is still an MP from UP. BJP can't afford to lose even a few percentage vote in UP and Bihar due to Raj Thackeray.
BJP can still win the 2024
Maharashtra election on its own as it is expected that Congress may not join
the pre-poll alliance of NCP and Shiv Sena.
B J P HAS TO STAND SEPERATE AND TALL AGAINST EVERY POLITICAL ENTITIES AT EVERY STATE IF IT HAS TO MAKE A MARK OF IT'S OWN AND THOSE DAYS FOR THE B J P TO TAKE THE HELP OF THE OTHERS HAS TO STOP IMMEDIATELY FOR FORMING IT'S GOVERNMENT AT ANY STATE.
- If BJP wins 2024 election, politics in India will have a complete transformation. The Indian National Congress either would cease to exist or would be completely disabled and weak.
- Gandhi family would cease to be in politics. Even if they remain in politics they will be an ignored lot. Politically become a lameduck.
- The Regional parties would lose their importance and regionalism and would be replaced by nationalism. Almost all Regional parties become non-existent.
- Most of those, who are involved in corruption irrespective of the parties they belong to will be prosecuted and put under bars, however high he or she may be. Probably even Gandhi's if found to be culprits in corruption cannot escape law.
- Kashmir problems will be solved once and for all. Also Kashmir becomes united under the suzerainty of India.
- India will become $5 trillion economy. India will become one among the top four economies (nominal) of the world.
- India will attain the developed status economically.
- Terror strike will become a thing of the past. There won't be any problem emanating from north-Western front or Pakistan because Pakistan would have become too weak to pose any problem.
- India become a global power
- RaGha will still be around in 2024 to ensure more of the same shit he is so famous for.
That is it
Regards and Thanks
Pics
Shyamal Bhattacharjee
Mr Shyamal Bhattacharjee, the author was born at West Chirimiri Colliery at District Surguja, Chattisgarh on July 6th 1959 He received his early education at Carmel Convent School Bishrampur and later at Christ Church Boys' Higher Secondary School at Jabalpur. He later joined Hislop College at Nagpur and completed his graduation in Science and he also added a degree in B A thereafter. He joined the HITAVADA, a leading dailies of Central India at Nagpur as a Sub-Editor ( Sports ) but gave up to complete his MBA in 1984 He thereafter added a Diploma In Export Management. He has authored THREE books namely Notable Quotes and Noble Thought published by Pustak Mahal in 2001 Indian Cricket : Faces That Changed It published by Manas Publications in 2009 and Essential Of Office Management published by NBCA, Kolkatta in 2012. He has a experience of about 35 years in Marketing .
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