Karnataka State Election :: With " 73% " Of Poll Vote Cast - All Opinion - Cum - Exit Polls Would Prove Wrong
It is not that very hard to digest but it becomes very hard
to FATHOM. There is a big
difference between the ACTUALITIES
that occurs and the ASSUMPTION that
is fixed. Sometimes every calculation that the actuality throws becomes very hard
to digest .It happens when the reality starts comng out in terms of the actuals
based on the facts and the figures that are thrown completely annihilates the expectations.
Thais is what is the end result of
the Karnataka State Election 20243 would throw.
Exit Polls And
Opinion Polls Would Be Proved Wrong ::
The Exit Polls this time around when the final result of the
Karnataka State elections are declared will finally make the people to believe and
force these offices of all the Exit Polls to EXIT from the business. These Exit
Polls Offices are nothing but an agency to conduct the results of the polls and
reflect it in the manner so that the Television Channels that are connected to
the various political parties get some kind of a mental satisfaction that they
had done so much of ground work and that if their party has lost it was
because of some X FACTOR - nothing more, nothing less
The Opinion Polls that are conducted a few months before the
election with the conclusion coming out of the same is just to
CONFUSE the mind of the voters to shift their allegiance for voting from their HEART OWNED PARTY to the other one
which is the STIFF competitor . This is the actual reason why the TV channels
which is connected to the political parties does . In between we have the guest
on those TV programmes to bark and howl for nothing. That is the end result of
the Opinion Polls or the Exit Polls.
Blasphemies Of The
Exit Poll And Opinion Polls - :
Being a self analyst myself on this issues with my OWN
methodology to forecast the polls, I can VOUCH
and SAY that more than NINTY PERCENT of the Exit and
the Opinion Polls always proves to be very wrong It has proved so for these
many a years and it could once again prove itself wrong on May 13th
2023 when the final results of the elections of the Karnataka State Polls 2023
would come into the screen of the TV and into the fray .Why is that I say that.
I have all the reason to believe that and I have immersed myself to the witch
and to the hilt to find out the reason and the cause and I find it as under-::
A ) . The Sample
Figure Of The Exit Polls Remains Static-::
The sample figure of the Exit Polls conducted are always
static. They take a particular number of figures and a particular section
according to their chalked out plans and programmes to conduct these .This
figure remains static whereas the figures of the category that they work upon
changes on the final dates of the poll.
For example the India Today TV led by Sudhir Chaudhury in
AAJTAL took the samples of 18 Years plus and some 21 or 25 years plus as
different category of the voters who would exercise their franchise.
SURPRISINGLY – NO VOTERS FALLING IN THE 18 YEARS PLUS CAME
TO VOTE ON MAY 10TH at about 95 % of the place at Karnataka. That is
a simple reason why the final outcome changes when the final results come out
B ) . There Is
Always A Change In The percentage Of Polling - ::
The percentage of the voters changes like anything. Karnataka
has an overall ALL TIME HIGH voting
of 71 . 10% which now inthis
election has been shatterd to the all time high of 73%. There is a voluptuous change in the increment of the
turn out of the voters which radically changes the numerals of the vote and the final results that could
emerge out of the same. In comparison the sample size remains static and
constant. These in the final counts bring about a voluptuous change in the
final outcome and the ones who are far away from all these facts and who do not know anything about all these facts ,
when they observe these on the TV are uprooted. One who is all into these
things would not be surprised by the change in the results and these kind of a people are few and numbered.
C ) . There Is A
Group That Votes Differently - ::
The sample size spreading its wing within that limited
numbers of the sample takes the various groups into action and then it covers
it to the the number of those groups that could be taken into account to
finally announce its final results
To cite as an example, they might have taken 5000 samples
from Bangalore under every category of voters to come out with their final
result hoping that Bangalore will cast about say 70% of the votes on that
polling day
The REALITY
and the ACTUALITY is BANGALORE
HAS CAST ONLY 55 % OF VOTE THIS TIME
AS COMPARED TO ABOUT 65 % LAST TIME.
Again as I have explained earlier at Mandya and Mysore on
May 10th after 1.00PM the Lingayats of those area turned out in full
bloom to cast their votes and the voting went around beyond the close time on
that day as those who had turned to cast their votes ought to have been given
the full opportunity to vote. This can topple the applecard of the JD(S) and
Congress to say in Mysuru and Ramanagram to say the least if they had voted otherwise.
My Assumption Of
The Final Analysis-::
There are two factors that could bring about a see change in
the final outcome that would be completely different as compared to the results
that we have seen on the TV show about the Exit Polls and the Opinion Polls.
The first is the sample size which remained constant and the
final percentage of the votes cast. The overall 73% of the vote cast is
something which would throw a complete different result which would put the
Exit Polls and its organization into many a thinking.As it is they do their
work within a specified period with the sample remaining constant and that does
not works at times when the percentage of the polling is very high.
Second - The last minutes OWLISH ACT that the party like the Congress did whwre they came out with a proclamation that if voted to power they would play the CAT-AND-MICE act with the Bajrang Dal, the public of Karnataka did it to the Congress much before that what the Congress as a party would do and parties does. To see it front of the naked eye, CONGRESS WAS SWEPT AWAY like the blade of the dry grass is swept by a strong blowing wind.
To cite as an example the AAJTAK showed that the Uttra Khand election would show the Congress winning it by about 46 seats as compared to the BJP which would muster about 24.
In the Congress manifesto it was written that if the Congress comes to the power at Uttra Khand they would construct a MUSLIM UNIVERSITY at the place where the FOOT PRINT of LORD VISHNU is still evident. The public got so infuriated that the entire When the sample size of the Exit Poll was made the manifesto
of the Congress was not published at all. The Congresswas then placed at 131
seats to win the battle No sooner that SHIT-POT of the
manifesto was published saying that the Bajrang Dal would be scrapped and
banned from Karnataka and actions would be taken against them, the entire COMMUNITY
of the Kannadigas blew their CONGRESS out of the mind and
changed their tempo.
The " SEGMENTATION " Of Karnataka Election 2023-::
The entire segmentation of the Karnataka election 2023 has been categorised into THREE different segments and those are the MOFFUSILS and the Villages which I make it as one as RURAL area and the towns, cities which are the semi urban and the urban areas
The Congress will make the most of the rural areas while the semi urban and the urban areas will be dominated by the B.J.P.This again would see the JD(S) taking away some share of the votes from the two but in a very small quantity. That would make the difference
Hung Assembly :: A " DASTARD " For The State Of Karnataka-::
Hung assembly would be a dastard for the entire state of Karnataka. It will hamper whatever little Karnataka has to offer. Undoubtedly who so ever is the ruling party- THE CORRUPTION IS THE " LIFE - BLOOD " OF THE BUSINESS HERE. That is the BUZZWORD.
Mr Modi and his action was to again set the correct tempoFor A “ HUNG – ASSEMBLY ”
However inspite of all this, I still feel that the B.J.P has the BRIGHTEST and the SLIGHTEST chance to emerge as a party number ONE in these elections.
The overall percentage of 73% of votes cast at Karnataka and the BULL-SHIT that contained in the Congress manifesto will bring out a different result and the STATE APPEARS TO HAVE A HUNG ASSEMBLY.Maybe either of the TWO, Congress or the BJP would finish at the POLE POSITION but without a full majority and that is actually the final outcome of this election .
If it is a hung assembly then JD(S) will play a crucial role in forming the Government.
In my earlier article I had mentioned B.J.P winning atleast 107 seats and at the most 112 seats and I stick to my guns.
Congress or any other party if they SING the LULLABHOYS to the Muslims, showing them the DANGLING-CARROT of the Muslims to the country before every election, will be KICKED out of the business and this is what is the FINAL VERDICTS of the HINDUS of this country.
The Congress twice has been shown the picture and many Regional parties would see this in the days to come if incase they have to show the dangling carrot to the people of this country.
Regards and Thanks
Pics
Shyamal Bhattacharjee
Mr Shyamal Bhattacharjee, the author was born at West Chirimiri Colliery at District Surguja, Chattisgarh on July 6th 1959 He received his early education at Carmel Convent School Bishrampur and later at Christ Church Boys' Higher Secondary School at Jabalpur. He later joined Hislop College at Nagpur and completed his graduation in Science and he also added a degree in B A thereafter. He joined the HITAVADA, a leading dailies of Central India at Nagpur as a Sub-Editor ( Sports ) but gave up to complete his MBA in 1984 He thereafter added a Diploma In Export Management. He has authored FIVE books namely Notable Quotes and Noble Thought published by Pustak Mahal in 2001 Indian Cricket : Faces That Changed It published by Manas Publications in 2009 and Essential Of Office Management published by NBCA, Kolkatta in 2012, GOLDEN QUOTES on Inspiration, Sorrow, Peace and Life, published by B.F.C Publications, Lucknow, and QUOTES:: Evolution and Origin of Management Electives by Clever Fox Publishing, Chennai and From Dhyan To Dhan :: Indian Hockey - Sudden Death Or Extra Time published by Clever Fox Publishing House . He has a experience of about 35 years in Marketing .
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