But does the loss of seats in UP tells the complete picture ? I don’t think so.
- BJP and its allies were already at their peak since 2014, in the Hindi heartland especially in Northern, Western and Eastern India.
- There was virtually zero scope to gain in these areas. In fact, due to high anti-incumbency sentiment even retaining these seats was always going to be a challenging task. For example, they even lost one seat in Gujrat, which is called as the fortress of BJP.
Vote share of Political parties in 2024
- BJP (without its allies ) was able to get 36.56% votes, similarly Congress was able to get 21.19 % votes.
- Now look at the vote share of BJP and Congress over past Lok Sabha elections.
- BJP actually got 1% less votes than what it got in 2019 elections while Congress got 2% more votes than 2019.
- Do you really view this 1% dip as alarming? (especially if you take factors like) :
- anti incumbency,
- mega opposition unity and aggressive campaigning (for example: Tejaswi Yadav (RJD) from Bihar conducted 250+ rallies alone)
- ultra socialistic schemes in manifestos (for example : freebies)
- reservation promises (for example: talks and discussions to increase obc reservation, private reservation etc)
- caste mobilization and
- blunders by BJP as well (for example: differences with RSS, sloppy cadre management)
- If you really want to see how anti incumbency looks like please see the vote shares of BJP and congress since 1984, when BJP had just 2 seats and 7.4% vote share.
Has The BJP been a loser ?
- In terms of seats won, it is definitely a loser but it is also a fact that despite being a single party it got more seats than the INDI-Alliance combined.
- In terms of vote shares, it can’t be termed as a loser. In fact it shows that its ideology (whether you like or not), still remains highly relevant, popular and poses a tough challenge to Congress.
- Most of the opposition parties who fought Lok Sabha together are actually arch rivals in states. So, it raises a question about their “stickiness” in future. For example : Kerala, Delhi, Punjab, West Bengal etc.
- BJP despite losing Uttar Pradesh was able to gain seats in new states like Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and also opened its tally in Kerala. So, one can clearly see that it is in “expansion mode” and not shrinking.
- It also increased its vote share in state like Tamil Nadu!
Since, Modi already took the oath for the third term so, it is premature to say that BJP is declining or Modi is a “pappu” solely due to UP debacle.
In fact, I believe that BJP will pose even a more stiff challenge to Congress once again in 2029.
That Is It and that speaks all about it
Mr Shyamal Bhattacharjee, the author was born at West Chirimiri Colliery at District Surguja, Chattisgarh on July 6th 1959 He received his early education at Carmel Convent School Bishrampur and later at Christ Church Boys' Higher Secondary School at Jabalpur. He later joined Hislop College at Nagpur and completed his graduation in Science and he also added a degree in B A thereafter. He joined the HITAVADA, a leading dailies of Central India at Nagpur as a Sub-Editor ( Sports ) but gave up to complete his MBA in 1984 He thereafter added a Diploma In Export Management. He has authored SIX books namely Notable Quotes and Noble Thought published by Pustak Mahal in 2001 Indian Cricket : Faces That Changed It published by Manas Publications in 2009 and Essential Of Office Management published by NBCA, Kolkatta in 2012, GOLDEN QUOTES on Inspiration, Sorrow, Peace and Life, published by B.F.C Publications, Lucknow, and QUOTES:: Evolution and Origin of Management Electives by Clever Fox Publishing, Chennai and From Dhyan To Dhan :: Indian Hockey - Sudden Death Or Extra Time published by BOOKS CLINIC Publishing House , Bilaspur , Chattisgarh and his FIRST book on Hindi poem, which reads as " BHED HAI GEHRA - BAAT JARA SI " published by Books Clinics , Bilaspur , Chhattisgarh. He has a experience of about 35 years in Marketing .
Signature Of Shyamal Bhattacharjee
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