Chirag Paswan Would Be The ' KEY - FACTOR " And A " TILTING - BALANCE " At Bihar Election - 2025

Chirag Paswan Would Be The “ KEY – FACTOR ”   And A   “ TILTING – BALANCE ”  At Bihar Election  - 2025



Pic - :: The Overall Representation Of The Key Factor Expressed Through A Diagpraphical Illustration 



Chirag Paswan Would Be The “ KEY – FACTOR ”   And A   “ TILTING – BALANCE ”  At Bihar Election  - 2025

The overall caste and the community at Bihar is as follow- :

Here is a breakdown of the major community percentages from the 2023 Bihar caste survey: 

·         OBC and EBC: 63.14%

·         Scheduled Castes (SC): 19.65%

·         General Category: 15.52%

·         Scheduled Tribes (ST): 1.68%


Pic -  The Overall Representation Of The Community That Resides At Bihar 

Before I could carry on , FORWARD with this article on this blog page, it is IMPERATIVE to say that - ::

 " AT ANY COST, ALL THE ILLEGAL VOTERS AT BIHAR, SPECIALLY FROM THE CROSS -OVERS , FROM NEPAL, AND PARTICULARLY FROM AND OF THE  BANGLADESHI  SETTLED, BIHARI CITIZENS, HAVE TO BE COMPLETELY BANNED, AND STOPPED FOR CAST THEIR VOTE IN THIS ELECTION AT BIHAR IN 2025 ".

This ONE percent of the vote gives about seven to eight seats for the R.J.D and this needs to be completely curbed out from the electoral process at Bihar, and all over India. 

From the picture revealed here it is quite pertinent enough to know all about the totality of the caste and the sub caste that exists at Bihar .

The entire article for the Bihar election is as stated below, and oit stands as under - ::

The majority of the voters at Bihar constitute the OBC  and the EBC , and it is this community that makes the entire difference of the votes and the factors that wins the election at Bihar.

The Factor That Disbalances The Votes And The Outcome At Bihar - ::

It is the influx and the influence of the voters that has come to Bihar from the route of Bangladesh and through the route of Nepal that makes an overall difference of the voting pattern at Bihar.

Officially there is no “ TANGIBLE ”  figure that could prove about how many illegal Bangladeshi have come to reside at Bihar by all illegal means and by the manner of proxies. . However this reading can prove to be a succor - ::

“ There is no specific percentage for Bangladeshi migrants in Bihar readily available, though official government data for the 2011 Census indicated a population of 810,771 Bengali speakers in Bihar, representing 0.78% of the state's population at that time. This figure represents a broader linguistic group and doesn't specifically count Bangladeshi migrants, a distinction complicated by internal migration often being mistaken for illegal immigration and the difficulty in obtaining precise figures for undocumented individuals’.  


Pic - :: An Illustration Of The " BALANCING " And The " DISBALANCING " Factor 

Especially, there are about 0.78 percent  voters of the illegal Bangladeshi and there are about 0.22 percent of the criss-croos- Nepalis who turn out to vote during the Bihar election and they make a lot of difference to the electorate result of Bihar.

The Nepal Factor - :

Bihar is attached to the Nepal border, and in every election there are about 0.22 percent of the Indian who are settled at Nepal for some reason in this border area holding the Indian Aadhar Crad but actually are the citizen of Nepal now as they are residing well within the area of Nepal, who make use their card, to move down to Bihar at the places where the votings are held, and vote for them. THESE ARE THE VOTERS, BASICALLY OF THE RJD, THE PARTY THAT BELONGS TO LALU PRASAD YADAV.

These voters, about 0.22 percentin numbers maybe belonging to the business group, or otherweise, but they are all the traditional RJD voters and they never miss an opportunity to cross over and vote for the RJD. That makes a overall difference.

Added to it are the Bangladeshi illegal citizen who are scattered all over the places of Bihar, the most important one being Patna. These Bangladeshi immigrants were helped the the RJD and its politicians to get the Indian Aadhar Card as well as the ration card, beside the medicinal facility in terms of the card that helps them to get the medicine from the CGHS scheme of the Government Of India. These documents helps them to the greatest and the farthest end, for those to vote when ever there is an election held at Bihar. This makes an additional fortune to the RJD whenever the elections takes place at Bihar. 

Which Community That Chirag Paswab Belongs To -:

Chirag Ram Vilas Paswan (born 31 October 1982) is an Indian politician and former actor who is serving as the 19th Minister of Food Processing Industries . He was born to Ram Vilas Paswan, former Union Minister and founder of Lok Janshakti Party, and Reena Sharma, a Punjabi Hindu air hostess from Amritsar. He has a sister, Nisha Paswan, whose husband, Arun Bharti, is also a part of Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas).

The Paswan, also known as Dusadh, are a Dalit community from eastern India. They are found mainly in the states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand. The Urdu word Paswan means bodyguard or "one who defends".

Historically, they were often associated with roles like village watchmen and messengers, and some were involved in pig rearing..This is the community from the land of Bihar, from where the Paswans’ have risen, from OBSCURITY to the top of the place where they are now saddled, especially the present Paswan family which is an important name in Bihars’ and Indian politics.

The pictorials and the figures, stated , might have some more added to the final figure of the population as these are the statistics of the year 2019 , when the Lok Sabha elections were held at Bihar. 

 .This makes an very interesting reading that would uproot the applecart of many at Bihar and its politics - ::

Population ( Paswan Community )

6,943,000 (5.3111% of the population of Bihar)

All over Bihar, there are at present, about SEVEN percent of the Paswan Community 

The figures of the Paswan might have further increased by about one and a half percent from 2019 to 2025 at present. At present it stands at seven percent . 

Pic - :: The Tilt And The Balance Which Ultimately Makes All The Difference 

All over Bihar, there are at present, about SEVEN percent of the Paswan Community

These Paswan community firmly, and strictly vote for the PASWAN and their party, the LOK JAN SHAKTI PARTY at Bihar .This seven percent would be the most CRUCIAL factor at Bihar in this election, and this would ultimately decide about who actually at the end would form a Government at Bihar.

The”  SUMMATION ” Of The Vote Percentage Which Would Equate The Formation Of The Government At Bihar

The overall percentage of the vote that the NDA carries as well as the individual party carries is as follow-  :

1 . B.J.P – The B.J.P at present carries about 22.70 percentage of votes from the lower community and it also carries the entire percentage of the higher community which accounts for about 27 percentage

2. The Janata Dal (Nitish Kumar ) .This party carries a total percentage of 18 percent of votes

3 . L.J.P (PASWAN ) This party carries almost SEVEN PERCENT pf votes

4 . other associates of  B.J.P About FOUR PERCENTAGE of votes are carried out by the Associate Parties of the B.J.P   

Hence the summation of the vote share of the B.J.P  is about fifty five percent.

Vote Transfer And Its Probability

There are chances that the new party formed by Prashant Kishor might eat up some percentage of the votes from the U.P.A party led by the R.J.D and it might pierce the B.J.P led N.D.A as well by a few percent. The estimation that arises is that the N.D.A might lose about two percent of the vote share and the U.P.A  would lose about three percent of the vote share to the newly formed party of Prashant Kishore.

Hence the newly formed party may win abot THREE seats to about FIVE, three being the most appropriate number.

Therfore the N.D.A and the U.P.A would lose some of the seats in some of the constituency due to the vote transfer from their base voters to the newly formed party. In this case the biggerloser would be the U.P.A .They might end losing as many as eight seats in the minimum and the N.D.A also would end up losing about six seats as compared to the last election.

 TEJASWI YADAV AND THE R.J.D WOULD STAND FIRST, BUT …..

Bihar has a total number of 243 Vidhan Sabha seats. The figure 122 makes the Government.That which secures 122 seats and above would rule the state.In this context the R.J.D would be the GREATEST LARGEST PARTY in this election. They would win about 65 to about 70 seats at the maximum .If the bug of Prashant Kishore deos not bite them, they may end at about 78 as well ‘However the SEVEN seats that the L.J.P is expected to win and add to that, the associate partners of the N.D.A would win , that would make about eleven to thirteen seats. It is expected that Chirag Paswan and his party would definitely bag as many as seven seats. It could be even nine, but seven is assured.

However if those eleven percent   is taken out, the scenario would change as the R.J.D would come down by about seven seats. If that happens then it would give no chance at all, to the R.J.D to stand anywhere to form the party at the state to administer the state. THAT IS FOR SURE.... 

THE CHIRAG PASWAN FACTOR . ..... 

 As I again say that - CHIRAG RASWAN AND HIS PARTY WOULD BE THE ULTIMATE FACTOR, THAT WOULD DECIDE THE BIHAT ELECTION. . He and his party has the maximum potential to win between seven to eleven seats.  This , seven , or , eleven seats will make all the difference with Chirag Paswan holding the fort. The B . J . P and the party of Nitish Kumar and his about eighteen percent of the seats will bring in about 115 seats to the N.D.A . The B.J.P is expected to win around 65 to about 70  seats as the minimum and about 75 as the maximum.

THE MAGIC FIGURE IF 122 WOULD BE IN SIGHT FOR THE N.D.A TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT –

If the N.D.A or the U.P.A can stop the newly formed party of Mr Prasahant Kishor to penetrate deep into their base of the vote bank, then the N.D.A would definitely win this election by a THIN WAFER MARGIN

Hence the strategy to win this election should be to completely check the onslaught of the R.J.D and Rahul GANDHI  and stop the penetration of the Prashant Kishor and his party to EAT into the N.D.A vote. If the N.D.A can manage to stop about ONE percent of the vote going in from their grip to the other- THEN THE N.D.A will form the Government HANDSDOWN.

 DO NOT COUNT DOWN Mr NITISH KUMAR – HE IS STILL THE COG IN THE WHEEL - :;

Every body are counting Mr Nitish Kumar as DOWN TO BE OUT. Here is a WARNING written on the wall  as they say - ::

 " DO NOT COUNT THE CHICKENS BEFORE THEY ARE HATCHED ".

 DO NOT COMPLETELY RUB OFF Mr NITISH KUMAR FROM THE COUNTS, HE WILL MAKE YOU ALL COUNT.

The WAR this time at Bihar will be very piercing and penetrating. Nothing would give the others even a fraction of a millimeter of land . However the N.D.A will have the last laugh

Chirag Paswan and his counts will make the differences and that would make the counts.

 AT THE END – THE BIHARIS WILL MAKE RAHUL GANDHI ONCE AGAIN A " LAUGHING STOCK "

That is it 

 That explains everything about it all 



Mr Shyamal Bhattacharjee, the author was born at West Chirimiri Colliery at District Surguja, Chattisgarh on July 6th 1959 He received his early education at Carmel Convent School Bishrampur and later at Christ Church Boys' Higher Secondary School at Jabalpur. He later joined Hislop College at Nagpur and completed his graduation in Science and he also added a degree in  B A thereafter. He joined the HITAVADA, a leading dailies of Central India at Nagpur as a      Sub-Editor ( Sports ) but gave up to complete his MBA in 1984 He thereafter added a Diploma In Export Management. He has authored EIGHT ,  books namely Notable Quotes and Noble Thought published by Pustak Mahal in 2001 Indian Cricket : Faces That Changed It  published by Manas Publications in 2009 and Essential Of Office Management published by NBCA, Kolkatta  in 2012, GOLDEN QUOTES on INSPIRATION , SORROW , PEACE and LIFE published by B.F.C Publications, Lucknow, , and QUOTES:: Evolution and Origin of Management Electives by by BOOKSCLINIC  Publishing House , , Bilaspur , Chhattisgarh  ,From Dhyan To Dhan :: Indian Hockey - Sudden Death Or Extra Time published by   BOOKS CLINIC  Publishing House , Bilaspur , Chattisgarh and his FIRST book on Hindi poem, which reads as        " BHED HAI GEHRA - BAAT JARA SI   and  MIDAS TOUCH AND MIRACLES OF INDIAN SPORTS published by Books Clinics , Bilaspur , Chhattisgarh,  

He has a experience of about 35 years in Marketing , and Business Analytics .

 

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