Pic - :: An Illustration Of The " INTERTWINED DESTINY "
INTERTWINED DESTINY OF
INDIA , CHINA , AND PAKISTAN – WHAT WOULD BE IT BY 2030
This article is “ SUBBED ” This actually is a article from a Government
placed, or might be a Government retired employee at Pakistan. I went through
it and I have taken many a points from his article, and many a stanzas as that
cannot be excluded from the article as these are very important.
The highlight of this article is that it is a very BEAUTIFUL article and is very
HARD to believe that
Pakistanis can write such a beautiful article, and that too in ENGLISH.
13 years is a far off
prediction to make. I can give some basic estimates off of what i see in
current trends. These article is based and prebased on the next five years of
the INDO
– SINO – PAKISTAN relationship These represent my personal opinions, as well
as the opinion of that Pakistani Gentleman who wrote this.
Assortment and
amalgamation of this article is the FIRST ONE THAT I HAVE DONE IT IN MY
PERSONAL BLOG PAGE, HERE, but otherwise I DO NOT INTERMINGLE MY VIEWS
WITH THEM AT ALL. :
Water stress and
rationing.
This problem persists at Pakistan, and with
the Indus WATER Treaty being almost say CANCELLED and the treaty now kept in
abeyance, it is sure that India would not like to share its water to Pakistan
and with Pakistan.
The Indian population
has grown from about 40 crores in 1947 to 1bout 145 crores at present. The
death of the farmers are unaccountable. The agriculture Of India requires water
very badly and the civilians needs the water MUCH MORE THAN THE AGRICULTURE
WOULD REQUIRE The Indian
civil society without the water at many
a places are GASPING for breathe , more so for the BREATH
At Pakistan there are the water stressed
cities and water rationing/water bills in place. Households are only allowed to
use a certain amount of water, you have to pay a bill on water too. At Pakistan, water related black economy
is in place , and India is no different with water tanker mafia
operating in cities by paying off cops and smuggling/selling water in urban
areas. Cops regularly bust poor people for hoarding water from broken city
pipes. This scenario prevails both in India and Pakistan. Unfortunate , at Pakistan , episodes of
drought like the Thar drought will take place more often in the hinterlands.
Pic - An example of the water crisis and its distribution at Pakistan
Pakistan turning into a water-scarce country,
say experts
828 children died in drought-hit Thar in three years, NA
panel told
Growing Chinese Expat
community
To start with and to add to it , While a single image is not available, a visual of the growing Chinese expat community in Pakistan would likely feature Chinese workers and professionals in various settings, from infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to urban areas like Lahore and Gwadar, highlighting their role in economic development and increasing cross-cultural interactions with local Pakistanis
Pic - :: An illustration of Chinese Project and the Chinese techocrats involved at Pakistan
Unlike India, at Pakistan there is thegrowing
Chinese expat community and a large infusion of Chinese culture into Pakistan. The reason for this is CHINA HAS INVESTED TO MORE THAN 60,000 US
BILLION DOLLARS IN MANY A PLACES AND IN MANY A PROJEECTS AT PAKISTAN.
I’m not sure about the exact amount, and I have put the amount as per the
statistics that was shared in the TV screen by the DOORDARSHAN but
this could be TRUE as well.
However with all the miffs
and the hisses taken, Pakistan could become home to a large and
growing Chinese expat community who will primarily be concentrated in Lahore,
Punjab and Islamabad-Rawalpindi but also spread across in smaller communities
and compounds dotting the country.
At Pakistan, many of
the Chinese and some of them will be settled close to CPEC related projects
while others might start their own private businesses and mix with the local
population. Pakistan in all probability, might have government and legal
systems in place facilitating their travel across the country and security
provisions. There might also be an uptick in marriages between Chinese people
and Pakistani people and it might not even be restricted to Uyghur
Muslim Chinese and Pakistani Chinese. To compare
with, here in India, we DO
NOT HAVE THE HINDU CHINESE AND THE BUDDHIST HINDUS AT ALL, I have observed that Chinese people are
pretty secular minded and don’t normally make a big deal of converting for
marriage. This is a personal observation, feel free to correct me.
How Pakistan is
becoming China's land of opportunity
“China
Town” Likely to be Established In Karachi
Growing infusion of
Chinese culture into Pakistan
Chinese cultural
infusion into the country deserves it’s own separate point. Pakistan as a
nation state has a curious case of identity related issues due to our somewhat hybrid
state as a Muslim majority country located between the greater Indian
civilization sphere and the Greater Iranian-Turkic-Afghan cultural
spheres.
In this state of
half-existence, Pakistan on a technical
ground , don’t fully qualify for
inclusion in either cultural sphere. Pakhtuns and Baloch identify at Pakistan,
is and has more with Iranian-Afghan
culture than India from my observations.
Punjabis tend to be split between the ones
embracing their South Asian identity or fully cutting themselves off from local
stuff to embrace Islamic identity. Sindh on the other hand is a pretty
self-contained culture in it’s own right. Because of this void in the identity of Pakistan, and also our
identity, our multi-cultural and multi-ethnic nature and somewhat fluid
existence .
Pakistan has always
proved itself as a fertile ground for
the imports of foreign culture and
ideology whether it’s the Arabization under General Zia,
Afghan cultural influx in the 80s and 90s, the Indian media influx and Bollywood
culture under Musharraf and the PPP 2008–2013 government or
the current Chinese cultural influx under the democratic government of
2013–2018. This also fits in with the Pakistan’s ancient heritage
as a crossing point between greater civilisation spheres, as it sits adjacent
to Turkic, Iranian, Afghan, Sikh, Hindu and Chinese civilisations and culture.
CHINESE FOOD CULTURE IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN -
We will see a sharp
uptick in Chinese food consumption, The
use of the Chinese language in India is absolutely NIL, but the case
in Pakistan is just the reverse of India. China now – a – days finds everything
of it influencing the mind set of the Pakistania, and the Chinese language use, Some of the changing
trend and the pattern of the Chinese which has caught the FANCIES at Pakistan, has been the Chinese clothing and goods, Chinese
business presence, Chinese architecture and Chinese cultural practices like
Chinese dragon symbols, fire crackers, new years celebration related stuff,
their garden styles and maybe even some Feng Shui in more wealthier, liberal
suburbs. Chinese cultural symbols will definitely become more
visible if not commonplace in Pakistan by 2030.
CHINESE GOODS AND SERVICES ARE HOVERING ALL OVER PAKISTAN -
A lot of this stuff
has happened already or is currently happening. The Ali Baba CEO is setting up
his presence in the country. Property prices are rising in certain areas as
Chinese buy real estate here. Chinese goods and services are becoming
mainstream across the nation. Chinese people are intermingling, and roaming in the streets of Pakistan in major cities will
be a common
sight rather than a rarity in 2030, This has been convinced and proved , as
evidenced by the Dawn News video about Chinese businesswomen selling cellphones
in Karachi .
CHINESE AND MANDARIAN
LANGUAGE- THE MOST SOUGHT FOREIGN LANGUAGEAT PAKISTAN
Pakistan also has a
large and growing number of people learning and using the Chinese language.
Chinese Confucian language centres are swamped with so many language students
they have to do classes multiple times a day to accommodate them all. Confucian
centres have had mixed results across the globe depending on the politics of
the region, but due to the close nature of Pakistan and China’s relationship
they have been met with a large amount of success in Pakistan and in other part of the country.
Even certain projects
of CPEC are designed to enhance the projection of Chinese soft power via
culture in Pakistan. This is an extract about the fiber optic line being placed
from Pakistan to China:
Of late, there has
been a preponderous proclamation by the head of ther state of Pakistan and it
has also received a Government approval . It completely cries for the
effectiveness of the incursion about and of the Chienese internet and the
advantage that Pakistan can take of it. It decries that -
“ A national fibreoptic backbone will be built for the country
not only for internet traffic, but also terrestrial distribution of broadcast
TV, which will cooperate with Chinese media in the “dissemination of Chinese
culture ”.”
Pakistan might soon
see theinflux and the might of the Chinese news channels, TV shows and films
translated and played on local media . The massive popularity of Turkish dramas
in Pakistan offers a precedent. It remains to be seen whether Chinese
media finds a foothold in this conservative Muslim country.
Pic - The Cultural Corridor Of Pakistan And China Is Relatively New At Pakistan But Has Caught The Fancies Of Many In The World
Pak-China ties getting stronger through cultural corridor: Sun
Weidong
But all in all,
several aspects of Chinese culture, Chinese people, their language, media,
architecture, diet and practises will become pretty visible, if not commonplace,
by 2030.
A Different Economy
Pakistan which has a
very poor economy and perhaps one of the worst GDP in terms of its national
wealth to portray wishes to, and will
transition from a agricultural-semi industrial economy to a more logistics-semi
industrial-commercial economy with a reduced role for agriculture.
Part of this will be
due to water shortages and land loss reducing agricultural output. Part of this
will be due to Chinese investments changing the economic landscape and bringing
certain new sectors into greater prominence. The CPEC investments total
somewhere around 20% of our current economic size. If at all and by estimation
that could be in its place to be correct, if the narration expressed above, sinks to about 50 billion into a 1 trillion
USD economy, it might not change that economy much and just be absorbed without
changing the economic footprint of different sectors. But in a smaller economy
like Pakistan which is only around 270 billion USD, how much of an impact would 50 billion USD will
change how much different sectors contributing to its economy to the economical front absorbing every
parameter and aspect of the economy is a question of conjecture and , which
sectors would employ how many people and
so on is lingersome.
An authoritarian
democracy
A contradiction
perhaps, but one that can only work in Pakistan. We are seeing even today the
uneasy nexus between the Armed Forces, the Establishment, the Elected career
politicians, the Judiciary and the Islamists settling into a stable equilibrium.
Neither having the required power to overtake all the others. And some, not
having the capacity to do so.
As this writer from
Pakistan that has to say and that says that , at the present juncture,
Pakistan is an
increasingly large and complex country. Both in terms of size and internal
factionalism. A coup cannot control and contain the entity of the nation as it
could in the past. And neither does the inclination for a coup exist anymore (for now).
Similarly, the PML-N
has seen the limits of its power in the face of an energetic and fanatical PTI
and an assertive Judiciary.
Without going into
details, it suffices it to say that all
the different factions like the courts, the Army, the PML-N, the PTI, the
Islamists and so on have seen the limits of their power during the tussle to
redefine Pakistan from the 1998–2017 and
they have all settled into an uneasy but currently steady equilibrium that we
see today. A limited democracy. A flawed republic.
But the increasing
trend towards authoritarianism has been the one key element common to all these
factions. Mass surveillance, deportations, border controls, militarised law and
order, suspension of normal procedures for quick and easy enforcement and so on
have continue regardless of which way the power of the pendulum swings.
There is a growing and
gnawing fear that Pakistan is in for some immense challenges ahead in the near
future. And that fear is translating into increasingly harsh and punitive
government measures for controlling citizens and mass surveillance. And these
measures pass because of the flawed nature of our democracy, lack of civil
society, general consensus among most government power centres that they are
needed and a populace scarred by terrorism for decades willing to accept them.
Missing persons,
jailing for criticism of powerful institutions and people in public, harsh and
questionable sentencing under anti-terror laws, mass surveillance of private
lives, torture, abduction and death penalties will become more frequent.
Military courts will be a permanent part of the judicial system and
sentencing/trials for terrorism or related charges will be “off the books” for
the most part. Terror will be wielded as an instrument of the state to impose
harsh law and order.
A two front military
deployment
As the war in
Afghanistan intensifies, placing significant pressure on the Afghan government,
we might see a tense border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. There will be
heavy fortifications, artillery exchanges and extremely restricted travel
across the western border similar to the border with India.
FOREIGN POLICY OF
INDIA AND ITS RELATION WITH RUSSIA AND CHINA - :;
India is currently
undergoing a transformation in foreign policy and taking a more muscular
foreign policy approach on the back of its growing economic and military
capability. India, similar to the US, might not allow investments in
Afghanistan and a friendly regime go to waste if the US were to pullout and the
Afghan government were to face a collapse.India has invested in Afghanistan
before there was a change in the administration of Afghanistan but India has
freezed its investment for every matter in that nation.
The Talibani
Government is keeping a very friendly approach towards India and thatit should
do for the benefit and the betterment of all the Afghanis. A small but significant deployment of
Indian forces in Afghanistan to assist the current government might be a
possibility by 2030 if the Western ISAF mission were to abandon Afghan government
in the face of an increasingly aggressive Taliban offensive. We might even see
other smaller nations like Bangladesh and Nepal sent small support
contingents as well under an Indian umbrella.
Of course, this
possibility might not come to pass if the Afghan troops manage to hold out
against the Taliban with ISAF air support/special ops backup. Or if a political
settlement is reached with Russia-Iran-China-Pakistan acting as mediators
between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
Whether or not ISAF
remains in Afghanistan or leaves and is replaced by India or we see the Afghan
government alone, the situation at the Western border is likely to remain tense
enough to necessitate military deployment on 2 fronts.
Even if the government
collapses and the Taliban take over the entire country, a 2 front deployment
might still be in place. The last 16 years have changed Afghanistan for a long
time to come. There will always be an influx of terror from the West,
necessitating a fortified and controlled border and the military troops needed
to screen it.
This would mean more
defence expenditure as well. Which would either add to our debt, be absorbed by
the economic growth enabled by CPEC or be made up with foreign aid (the SCO’s
counter-terror budget for example).
More technology, more
advanced infrastructure
Due to the capitalist
and relatively open nature of Pakistan’s economy and the current trend of
Chinese investments in Pakistani infrastructure, we are likely to keep up with
a lot of tech trends in the world.
Military tech aside, Pakistan in 2030 could see more advanced
cellular comms, wireless payments, subways, urban metros, renewable energies
and even some electric vehicles.
This makes sense
historically as well as ever since Musharraf opened up the economy during his
tenure, Pakistan, is and has pretty much
automatically adopted tech from abroad in our localised setting. Whether it’s
Netflix, Uber or what not. And this is likely to continue.
Greater Debt Problems
and more Debt relief and servicing with the AIIB and Chinese state banks rather
than the IMF/World Bank
Pakistan’s debt
problem is unlikely to go away anytime soon. Declining exports might soon be
compounded probably by the GCC countries kicking out Pakistani labourers and
workers from their countries due to Pakistan’s refusal to be involved in their
disputes with Iran. Pakistan’s debt issues will plague it well into the next
decade.
More state fragility,
urban pressure, crime
Pakistan also like and alike China and India,
would have to resolve its problems athat surfaces its ever growing population. With
a population straining at 200 million, a huge youth bulge and growing stress on
scarce economic resources, it’s a blunt fact that there will be an increased
threat to the state from large segments of society unable to get jobs and
business opportunities.
While CPEC related
projects and investments will stave off pressure from the government for a
while, until and unless massive investments are made in education and training
sectors, new business opportunities created, exports boosted and trade
accelerated: the country of Pakistan, is
in for some deep problems. More and more rural to urban migration will occur as well on
the backs of a declining agricultural sector, environmental degradation and
lack of rural opportunities in general. This will stress city infrastructure and
collect large groups of people in one place which is always a recipe for
disaster during times of tense political and economic crises.
Three trends and the
impact that this writer of Pakistan is worried about - ::
1. Pakistan will lean more towards Iran or the
GCC in 2030?
2. Pakistan will religious conservatism be less or more in 2030?.
3 . Pakistan will like the CPEC integration occur with India, Iran or both or neither?
The Iran-GCC issue is in a state of flux. On one hand we are in trouble with the GCC as they deport more of our labor force, we refuse to send troops to Yemen, strictly stay out of Saudi lead military force against Iran and have committed ourselves to defend Saudi Arabia only from a hostile invasion.
On the other hand, we
just shot down an Iranian drone, our border with Iran is unstable with border
guards being killed and mortars being fired and delays in economic integration.
The religious
conservatism also deserves some analysis. The long war on terror has upset the
forces of political Islam who have lost key strongholds in their north western
regions to upstart parties or establishment parties pursuing a primarily
economic rather than Islamist agenda.
Pakistan has never
been a resource rich country like the GCC so it has always had to balance some
aspects of modernity and progress with its traditional, conservative form of
Islam in order to remain a viable threat to it’s eastern neighbor.
Nowhere is this
balancing act better symbolized than by the Hijabi female fighter pilots in the
Pakistan air force, walking the fine line between modernity and traditional
values.
.Shun ‘enmity’, join CPEC: Pakistan Army commander tells India
Whether all three
countries India, China and Pakistan , involved manage to resolve their differences
and push forward in economic integration is a question that remains to be
answered, although given the current border crises that just popped up between
China and India, i have a pessimistic viewpoint on what the future could hold.
Pakistan, due to its
somewhat hybrid identity has shifted constantly as a society throughout the
decades of it’s existence and has proven fertile ground for foreign cultures,
ideologies and social concepts to take root.
Similarly, her
position as a nexus between major competing powers and Geopolitical forces has
shifted her economic, political and military fortunes considerably and they too
have remained in a state of flux. Add to that the upcoming pressures of water
stress and overpopulation , and this makes the present scenario of Pakistan
very porous and fallible.
I could be 100% wrong
about everything i predicted in this answer. Or 100% right. Or somewhere in
between.
Mr Shyamal Bhattacharjee, the author was born at West Chirimiri Colliery at District Surguja, Chattisgarh on July 6th 1959 He received his early education at Carmel Convent School Bishrampur and later at Christ Church Boys' Higher Secondary School at Jabalpur. He later joined Hislop College at Nagpur and completed his graduation in Science and he also added a degree in B A thereafter. He joined the HITAVADA, a leading dailies of Central India at Nagpur as a Sub-Editor ( Sports ) but gave up to complete his MBA in 1984 He thereafter added a Diploma In Export Management. He has authored EIGHT , books namely Notable Quotes and Noble Thought published by Pustak Mahal in 2001 Indian Cricket : Faces That Changed It published by Manas Publications in 2009 and Essential Of Office Management published by NBCA, Kolkatta in 2012, GOLDEN QUOTES on INSPIRATION , SORROW , PEACE and LIFE published by B.F.C Publications, Lucknow, , and QUOTES:: Evolution and Origin of Management Electives by by BOOKSCLINIC Publishing House , , Bilaspur , Chhattisgarh ,From Dhyan To Dhan :: Indian Hockey - Sudden Death Or Extra Time published by BOOKS CLINIC Publishing House , Bilaspur , Chattisgarh and his FIRST book on Hindi poem, which reads as " BHED HAI GEHRA - BAAT JARA SI " and MIDAS TOUCH AND MIRACLES OF INDIAN SPORTS , published by Books Clinics , Bilaspur , Chhattisgarh,
He has a experience of about 35 years in Marketing , and Business Analytics .
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