What
Made The BJP To End The Game Of Mamta Banerjee :: “ KHELA – SHESH ”
At the outset , let me make the SECRET very clear that the
INROADS of the BJP and to set it’s rule at Bengal was a PLAN which started at
BJP as well as the RSS HQ , not from 2019 or 2014 byt from 1992 .This victory
of the BJP is a RESULT of the HARDD WORK that the BJP and the RSS has put
together ever since 1992 and this has come after a gap of 29 years, ie , a gap
of THREE DECADES .For every three DECADES THAT THE bjp WAS crushed IN IT’S
ELECTION ATTEMPT AT Bengal, it kept on learning from the practicalities and
eventualities and there were many studies done so very richly and at last after
a TRY , TRY AND TRY AGAIN for 29 years, the BJP at last has emerged VICTORIOUS.
The BJP could have set it’s rule at Bengal along with the TMC in
2001, when Ms Mamta Banerjee was with the NDA, but she wanted the rule of the
TMC to be on it’s own term and ALONE in it’s manner and effort to set the rule
at Bengal. That separation extended the rule of the LEFT – COMMUNIST at
Bengal for a decade and it pushed the
BJP in such a place that the emergence
of it at Bengal looked very impossible but the RESERARCHERS of the RSS- BJP
combined, especially the RSS worked very sincerely and enormously to make what
the world believed it IMPOSSIBLE and the result is to be seen .
People would laugh at the BJP and it’s supporters at Bengal when
they spoke about the BJP’s attempt to establish it’s rule at Bengal but at last
the BJP-RSS proved that EFOORT are only the MODIFICATION and MODERNISATION of
the ploy at the root level to conquer the fort and furl the victorious flag and
today the BJP is on the door of furling it’s flag at Bengal to lay it’s hand to
rule the state for atleast five years , now and maybe the next five years as
well after this term ends.
The
DUAL-NON-STOP – POINTER’S “ HANDS ” OF
THE BJP
The man who did this possible for the BJP were 1 ). Mr Dilip
Ghosh.He was LAUGHED at always, was taunted, was made a LAUGHING STOCK and was
always made the BUTT-OF-THE-JOKES but he carried out his job in an astute
manner. The next ie , 2), in the line
was Mr Mithun Chakravorty who in a short span of time that he got, he and his
ROAD-SHOW completely brought the people to the BJP and it’s camp.
These two made mistakes in the early part of their innings and
that proved to be a deterring factor for the BJP but an as astute learner of
the game, they very soon improvised their strategy and the rest is a history
now.
Nothing could be more WORTH saying Mr Dilip Ghosh and Mr Mithun
Chakravorty in Bengal - ::
DADA- KRITOGO ROILO AAR ROILAAM , ABEDAAN ER SOOD PHIRATAY PARBO NAA ,
…..
It really means BROTHER- THANK YOU and would NOT be able to
REWPAY the HELP in anyway even in terms of the interest that we owe to you.
Relentless efforts and the FOCUS on completely shattering the
opponent’s that comes in to the way and the improvisation as always in every
steps, beside GALVANISING ythe one’s who were the BJP members to put their BEST
FOOT FORWARD inspite of the MURDERS committed by the opponent especially by the
TMC Goons, did not stop the BJP and it’s member’s at all to eventually FLOUR
and FLOOR the Mamta’s ILL-WISH-CRUEL deeds in every possible manner and to make
her to LICK the dust.
The
Mistakes Of Mamta Banerjee
While mistakes of Mamata are many, the first big mistake that
definitely led to BJP entering Bengal was that she somewhere in pre-Modi period
decided to make it a battle against Modi. That was the point where she had
planted her sapling of destruction and the entry of Mr Modi and the BJP at
Bengal.
Her second most GRAVIOUS mistake when she just turned down the
plane of Mr Mohan Bhagwat when he had entered the Airport to be at Bengal to
hold some meetimgs and MOTIVATIONAL Class for the RSS at Bengal. This habit of
Mamta to send her back made the RSS cadre and the RSS followers to RAGE like a
WOUNDED LION and ever since that many, many and many RESEARCH wer done to
completely BREAK the TMC and Mamta Banerjee by the BACKBONE and by the SCRUFF
of her COLLOR BONE and when at last it was found and learned by ONE RSS
Follower that Mithun Chakravorty has TURNED AADHYAATMIK ie, SPIRITUAL, that was enough for
the RSS to talk SPIRIYUALISM in LENGTH with HIM for hours before turning him to
join the BJP Brigade and when he did join the BJP , it was clear that more than
FIFTY PERCEWNT of the VOTES will fall into the lap of the BJP. His is what was
the JOB executed by the BJP-RSS and the one’s who devotedly withot any means of
gains do work for the BJP-RSS .
BJP would NOT have gained more than 39% of the VOTES from this
ekection at Bengal, but with Mithun Chakravorty entering the FRAY, and drawing
as well as attracting the voters at the CITY, TOWN and the MOFFUSIL took that
to the limit of about 50% and in the final analysis that was that and this is
what would come out from the final result after the results would be declated
on May 2nd 2021.
Over
Critical And Criticising Of Mr Modi and Mr Shah :: It HOOKED the TMC &
Mamtadi
If I remember well, Modi didn’t criticize Mamata that much in
his first speeches when he came to West Bengal (note, this is about 2014 and
not 2019 campaign). This was a time when Left was more or less vanquished from the state
politics and Mamata was the unchallenged regional satrap. However, Modi’s mere
presence in Bengal despite making very little to no noise against her kind of irked her, and then she decided
to go on a tirade. I remember
her using some terms on him, following which Modi decided to use sarcastic
quips on her. The main was “ DIDI – O
– DIDI ” The voice DID-O-DIDI in SOFT was RESPECT showered to her by Mr
Modi but the VOICE which had GROUGHNESS in it and with a SHRILL was a WARNING
message to her for the atrocity that she was continuously doing it to ransack
the elections, and this was a MESSAGE to the intelligent that STORM awaits her
after the election.
The FEARFUL one’s which the Bengalis have been since the last 45 years mustered the COURAGE
to come out in open at Bengal and that is reflected by the mannerism of about
82% of the votings taking place , on an average at Bengal this time and inspite
of heavy GOONDAISM and VIOLENCE adopted by the TMC goons, these voters
completely showed and displayed their
vengeance against the TMC in a respited but a in a collared and effervescent controlled manner .This was
just the FAITH Mr Modi could CREATE amongst the Bengal voters and the FAITH
that he could create completely cornered the TMC and it’s applecart .This Mr
Modi did that without using any HURTS and the WOUNDS that could be effected on Mr
Less Ms Mamta Banerjee .This infact WAS THE MAJOR WEAPON INSIDE THE SLEEVES OF Mr MODI AND THIS INFACT
DID THE TRICKS.
The
FOLLY and the FOOLISHNESS of Ms Banerjee :: De-Facto and De-Jerks
Now she could have stopped it right there after the polls were
over, but nope. Such was her folly that in Parliament it wasn’t Congress, but
her party’s MPs who were making more noise against the BJP. I presume Mamata
was trying hard to make herself look as a better opposition than Congress, but
it was a sure way of making BJP look like a serious contender back in state.
The whole thing of course didn’t materialize much for BJP in 2016 elections.
Now this was I guess the perfect time for Mamata Banerjee to stop making it a
personal battle. But then, Mamata was being herself.
Now on ground this actually began to happen somewhere from post
2016, with attacks on BJP cadres becoming more profound and frequent. Till this time there has been about 200
murders about 100 or more than it wounded and many cases of abductions etc of
which the numbers are not present with me to put it overe here. This led to a classic Streisand effect, where
BJP, a party with far less MPs and MLAs than Congress or CPI(M) was now a
bigger target for TMC, and it BECAME one
for the TMC, as an OPPONENT, to take it on, HANDS DOWN, first, and then
completely SHAKING it to UPROOT it’s cart with no wheels to be seen around of
the carts , leading in years
to come to have more attention towards BJP. In next two years this would
culminate in making BJP the primary opposition, first de-facto and later by
2019 de-jure. Talk about
self-goals.
The second big mistake that she made was getting a friendly hand
from the most politically-unconnected fellows in fight against the same BJP. As
Delhi has Khan Market gang, Kolkata has the “Bhadraloks” , a term in Bengali
that means “gentlemen”, though in modern jargon it is usually a term used to
ridicule the uber-privileged class
residing in posh localities of Kolkata, and who are also known to harbor a
twisted notion of Bengal that seems largely unconnected to the average mass of Bengal. This section’s
usual diatribe and bile against BJP by portraying
them as “outsiders” and support to Mamata as the “lesser evil” doesn’t seem to
resonate to the people who have actually suffered under Mamata, far from the
ivory towers that these fellows here reside in. Among the more
historically-aware population fed up with TMC, the history of BJP’s predecessor
i.e. Jana Sangh being started by a Bengali himself, such statements of terming
BJP as outsiders sound kind of……stupid.
So in the end, Mamata’s own ego and siding with the irrelevant
brought BJP to her door.
The Political effects will be as follows.
1. Farmers agitation will come to an end, as
Tikait has asked not to vote for BJP.
2. Prashant Kishore political value will be at
stake.
3. Mamata Banerjee political value will go down.
4. G 23
of Congress will be more active
, with RG and family will have to be
at sidelines.
5. Modi and Shah would be more powerful and
Parliament will see more pro active bills from BJP.
6. Maharastra Government will face the heat. They
will have to BUY the BRAINS from the MARKET to THINK and MOVE ahead.
7. BJP winning from Bengal will be a footing of
BJP and Narendra Modi again in 2024.
8. Expect more bold economic reforms after BJP
winning Bengal.
9. BJP won’t care about allegations by Rahul
Gandhi.
Opposition will start deliberations for
whole over India alliance for 2024. A Ten
years is a very long time both in politics and in life.
Mull on it and you
will realize that the character of this nation changed since 2014. From a frigid government ruling the
nation from 2002 to 2014, the change to see something to a government in an
obstacle race was established in the center.
The
CYCLIC-ORDER-FACTOR of the BJP and it’s ALGORITHM and ALGEBRA - ::
It also needs to be
pointed out that Kolkatta and it's suburbs only contribute to 42 seats…
BJP first started with
the districts and slowly circled the city and this was evident in 2019Llok Sabha
results.
The leaders of the
districts and rural areas were worked upon and slowly Kolkata with its know all
intellectuals lost the narrative as they were being pushed beyond their circle
of influence
My read is that Didi
was more in opposition than in governance and this vacuum was quickly filled or
ignited by BJP
Booth management
weakness is being countered by Weaponization of social media. The classic
example was that after a rally by Mr Amit Shah, the BJP under the tutelage of
Mr Dilip Ghosh immediately on the spot selected FIFTY young turks including
some young girls and send them on a mission to visit villages after the
villages and meet the voters individually and totor them the essence and the
message that the BJP carries. Also in a rally which he conducted, in a rally
Amit Shah was requesting each man to send 50 messages to their aquaintences
about the virtues. Amplifying the reach…
Lastly the character
of the TMC party is not based on any solid foundation, it was a cooperation
formed to throttle the left… then what??
The “ OPIUM” and the “
CHAIN-REACTION ”
Since religion is the
opium of the masses, opium was adequately pushed and the chain reaction was
set.
Last but not the least
‘ Character is destiny ’
Character is what
drives us. It is what makes us who we are. Heraclitus speaks, listen. Sadly TMC
doesn't have it, nor does it have credibility.
"Psephologist Dr. Praveen Patil
(@5Forty3) tweets:
There are 3 grades of anti-incumbencies in
India:
1] Anti-incumbency against governance/policies
2] Anti-incumbency against governments; CM/PM
et al.
3] Local anti-incumbency against sitting
MPs/MLAs
Bengal is in the 4th grade; grassroots level
anger against the system!
Two constant complaints you will hear in
almost every village across West Bengal - which were not discussed so openly
even in the run-up to 2019 elections:
A] Grassroots level corruption in everyday
life ("Tolabaji")
and
B] State sponsored violence that scares every
neighbourhood
The last time we witnessed a grade 4
anti-incumbency - grassroots level anger against the system - was in 2014
Andhra Pradesh elections against the sitting Congress Government after the
division of the state.
Where is West Bengal headed towards?
3 months before elections, political trends in
Bengal were clear.
There are only 2 possibilities as of today;
A] either it will be a closely fought election
like Bihar
or
B] it will be a BJP landslide
"Whatever the election results, the fact
is that never has there been such a massive grassroots impact in Bengal of a
mere three words which don't even belong to the Bengali cultural language"
- A Bengali 'intellectual' on the power of "Jai Shri Ram"!
The probability of a TMC landslide doesn't
exist, and that is the BIG CHANGE!
10 years ago, exactly around this time, there
existed only 2 possibilities in Bengal - either a close contest or a TMC sweep;
CPIM lost that election & has never recovered since.
If I am Mamata Banerjee, I would be extremely
scared of that decadal history right now!"
When I used to, and have been, saying this
(though, admittedly, not in so many words), I am labelled a Bhakt.
But when a well known psephologist says it, it is insight! Sigh, koyi
kadar nahi karta!
But I can provide more details on this. The ' Tolabaji
' was brought about after the collapse of the Narda/Sharda, Demonetisation
& the drying up of Petro$ funds. This necessitated ' Tola ' (Hafta for you
all non-Bongs) becoming an imperative to keep the political machinery running.
In fact the party became the ' Super Middle Man ' for all
business running in the state. Earning from extraction and commissions.
The “ F-M-A ” ie the
Finance-Marketing-Administration Factor - ::
As if this wasn't enough, even while its
fashion sprouting MPs talked about ' Fascism ' in the well of
the parliament, it has been increasingly being able to silence ANY voice which
was raised as critique by either physical intimidation OR by Police lockup.
Across the board. It achieves that by having the press either in its pocket (by
virtue of being the primary advertiser) or letting the press know that crossing
the line will not keep one's physical integrity intact!
If all this wasn't enough, it realised that to
stop any kind of BJP wave hitting Bengal, not to mention facilitate its
commercial functions, it needed to have control of all grass root
administrative bodies. Thus, in 2018, it unleashed a never before seen physical
intimidation across Bengal. THIS one activity tipped all the middling voters,
who had no particular affinity towards BJP, towards it. The result was there
for the 2019 election to see. And this turn of events was massive. Cos and because , there is no denying the
popularity of her coming to power in 2016. But, by 2018, the ground cadres who
were Hindu started moving away from the party. As the ground workers moved,
there was no option but for the leaders to move.This they did it because she
APPEASED the MUSLIM and the Muslim voters like anything and that provoked the
HINDU-VOTERS like anything and by the time the 2020 began, according to my
study over 42% of the BJP and the Hindu voters in special were DEAD against
this Lady to have to 3rd go. There itself the matter was decided and
the results would be foreseen now.
On top of which has been the growing
resentment towards the blatant pandering of Muslims. This has only been growing
by leaps and bounds and has been resulting in a variety of communal riots,
which media don't cover, but people have to bear on the ground. Bengali
Hindus were forced to become aware of their Hindu identity. No
sooner the JAI-SHRI-RAM started FURLING up the TMC LOVE started going down,
down and down ever and after.
In all this, Didi's biggest enemy is WhatsApp.
With the pressure cooking and people not being able to express openly, WhatsApp
became the means of sharing and the more people shared the more there was to
discover about what has been happening on the ground and it wasn't adding up to
be a pretty story.
In all this, Prashant
Kishor feels he has been able to tweak and fix all. Ha!, HA !, HA! , HA 1 HA !
. What READINGS- just I do not want to BREAK his HEAD but these are what makes
the MEDICNE to go under the crust of the earth as LAUGHTER becomes the BEST
MEDICINE. The ground level anger
is not being sussed out by all. Given the level of fear, neither is the ground
level anger being expressed. But will it be a walk over for BJP? Tough to say.
It is a party without convincing leadership in Bengal , now filled with
opportunists, plenty of infighting.
That is the NEW
TECHNIQUE which the BJP has presented and given to the WORLD of POLITICS.FIGHT
WITHOUT A FACE AND THEN SELECT THE MAN .That they did it at Tripura, that they
did it at Uttrakhand, that they did it at Madhya Pradesh last, THAT, and the
various factions trying to trip each other might work against it- many
might feel but that is how they have been WINNING the election .
In ANY other circumstances they would have floundered. BUT it is the anger
which might have the voters overlook it all. Didi might have managed to gift
this state to BJP. Unless, BJP isn't able to get a majority on its own. It will
then be kept out of power by a severely truncated TMC who will now have even more
demanding quarters to mollify. And that is something the local voters are aware
of. That makes them to shift out of the TMC and bring in the BJP.
My
PERSONAL ASSESMENT - :: 164 seats for the BJP
The RATIO of the VOTE
this time according to my own and personal assessment is 5:3:1:1 . This means
that for every voters, TEN in numbers, there will be FIVE votes for the BJP
that it will get, there would be about THREE that the TMC will reap, and there
would be ONE each for the COMMUNIST-LEFT and the OTHERS to get.
Bengal in all has about
6 crores of voters both LEGAL and ILLEGAL . Of these there are about 56 % of
the voters who are HINDUS .
There would be about
3.2 crores of the HINDU votes which the JAI-SHRI-RAM will get and
these constitutes about 56% and that if converted into the SEATS , then the BJP
is to secure about 164 .60 seats.
IT IS THAT THE BJP
WILL GET ABOUT 164 TO 165 SEATS and that
would it actually be.
THE STATE IS GOING TO BE RULED BY THE SAFFRON
FOR ANOTHER DECADE IF ONLY LAW AND ORDERS ARE VERY VERY VERY
VERY STRICT AND JUSTIPRUDENT.
Even if the numbers of the VOTERS are less than SIX crores the
voting exercised would be in the RATIO of 5:3:1:1 and BJP will win 164 SEATS in
toto.
The TMC will
manage to get about 114 seats
and the OTHERS as well as the LEFT in combination will get about 16 to 17 seats
and INDIVIDUALLY the CONGRESS will get- MAYBE ONE at Murshidabad courtesy Mr Adhir Ranjan Choudhury .
FACTORS AND VARIOUS STUDIES THAT SUBSTANTIATES MY VALIDITY - ::
The assembly elections in West Bengal is
mostly between TMC and BJP. All other players are playing marginal game. Either
of these two will be forming the next government. Both have advantages as well
as disadvantages. Let me list out the same.
There have been many a MICRSOSCOPIC and MINICULISTIC factors that I have taken to present my study and these are the one's which makes me so CONFIDENT about my prediction and my BELIEF that BJP will win the election by securing 164 seats. These makes an interesting reading .
Advantages of BJP:
1. BJP has taken the cause of Hindus who form 68%
of the population in the state. Because of the size of population BJP derives
greater advantage over its opponents.
2. While BJP is backing the major community, all
other parties have been appeasing the minorities. Thereby the minorities are
getting divided whereas the major community is United.
3. BJP has got 41% votes in 2019 general
election. The party need to increase the vote share by 3% or reduce the vote
share of TMC by 3% to get majority. Both are possible.
4. Owaisi and Abbasi Siddiqui of Furfura Sheriff
are contesting the assembly elections on a big way dividing the minority votes.
5. BJP is in power at the centre which help the
party because of the numerous projects successfully completed. People feel BJP
to be the right one to lead
6. BJP has huge resources both physical as well
as financially.
Advantages of TMC:
1. TMC is in power in West Bengal which is a huge
advantage because Mamata will not hesitate to use state machinery for her
electoral gaii.
2. TMC has the solid backing of the minorities
who form 32% of the population. In 98 seats minorities are deciding factor. In
as many as 60 constituencies minorities are 45% to 60%. Hence Mamata can be
assured of 55 seats and required to win 95 more to form a government.
3. TMC under Mamata has developed an army of
goons who are ready to do anything. There were more than 130 deaths of BJP
workers where there is a doubt that they might have been involved. These goons
scare the public and intimidate them. They even capture booths for TMC.
4. Mamata need to only hold on to her 43% vote
share and slightly increase it by 1% to get decisive victory which is possible.
5. Mamata hails from West Bengal and knows the
contours of the land very well. She knows how to create a favourable atmosphere
for her party. Also she is ruthless against her opposition.
6. If Mamata marginally falls short of numbers,
she can easily form the government by taking the help of secular parties like
the Left or Congress who will also readily oblige her.
Disadvantages of BJP:
1. BJP is fighting a lonely battle against TMC
where TMC is supported by a host of parties like SP, RJD, SS etc.
2. BJP cannot expect any support from the
minorities. They will vote TMC or Owaisi or Abbasi Siddiqui party or the
Mahajot. BJP need to get 45% votes from 68% of major community. BJP need to
poll 65% of votes of the major community which is a tall order though possible.
3. BJP is unable to name a CM candidate fearing
divisions among the partymen. Hence not able to take on Mamata effectively.
Disadvantages of TMC:
1. TMC is purely dependent on the votes of 32%
minorities. Even if 3% to 5% minorities shift their loyalties, TMC is certain
to go below 100 seats. Since IFS of Abbasi Siddiqui of Furfura Sharif and AIMIM
of Owaisi are contesting on a big scale there is every possibility of this
happening. Hence Mamata is now in vulnerable situation.
2. In 2019 general elections BJP swept the
northern and western Bengal. BJP was ahead in 125 assembly segments. Did very
poorly in the south and central parts of the state. After Suvendu and Rajib
resigned from TMC to join BJP, the BJP stock increased in these regions. Hence
even if BJP win 23 seats they form the government. TMC is in a very precarious
position.
3. TMC cannot hope to win from the north and
western Bengal because these regions do not have minority concentration.
Therefore TMC can only lose more seats and cannot gain any.
4. Wherever minorities are more in number, there
the fight is multi cornered with too many aspirants from many parties. Wherever
minorities are miniscule the fight is direct between BJP and TMC. Hence TMC is
in disadvantages.
Going through these
advantages and disadvantages you can form an opinion of who wins and who forms
the government.
There is s SMALL CHUNK of the Muslim voters that will vote for the BJP. Some 11% - 12% Muslims are definitely going for BJP . Even in Lok Sabha some 12% ,voted for BJP in West Bengal. These are carefully over the time cultivated BJP Muslim vote bank that consists of young men , some women and some poor sections. Most people often forget this vote bank. They are post 2014 muslims who have no memory of Ayodhya or 2002.
Anything that would be less from the Muslim community for BJP at Beengal will be made up by the Matua Community and the BJP is expected to get about 70% of the seats from this community and that will make the BJP to win at Bengal.
Add to that 56% or
more Hindu vote bank and you get 42% votes that GUARANTEES THE BJP VICTORY .
IN ANY CASE BJP AT BENGAL WILL NOT BE LESS THAN " 148 "
The first step toward Akhand Bharat will
start from Bengal only, the reason is Bengal is not like any other
state, this is the state where if you put Nationalism in the right way,
these people can be the greatest force which will
make North Bengal and the complete North East safe from Rohingya and Bangladeshis illegal immigrant.
This is not just any
other election this is the rise of Hindutva, get
ready to see Amit Shah in the form you have never seen once they win the election,
neither courts nor any kind of opposition will have power to stop them to throw
Bangladeshis and the ILLEGLE Muslims especially the Pakistanis along with the
Bangladeshi’s from and out of India.
At last this entire reading and prediction that I do is based on the fact that the voters might have voted the way that we saw it on the TV for them to vote. If the voting patterns of the voters are different the results will not be as what I have mentioned.
Overall the BJP looks like the front runners but depends on the correct voting pattern.
Well , that is it and That sums it all.
Regards and Thanks
Pics
Shyamal Bhattacharjee
Mr Shyamal Bhattacharjee, the author was born at West Chirimiri Colliery at District Surguja, Chattisgarh on July 6th 1959 He received his early education at Carmel Convent School Bishrampur and later at Christ Church Boys' Higher Secondary School at Jabalpur. He later joined Hislop College at Nagpur and completed his graduation in Science and he also added a degree in B A thereafter. He joined the HITAVADA, a leading dailies of Central India at Nagpur as a Sub-Editor ( Sports ) but gave up to complete his MBA in 1984 He thereafter added a Diploma In Export Management. He has authored THREE books namely Notable Quotes and Noble Thought published by Pustak Mahal in 2001 Indian Cricket : Faces That Changed It published by Manas Publications in 2009 and Essential Of Office Management published by NBCA, Kolkatta in 2012. He has a experience of about 35 years in Marketing .
This website is maintained , controlled and managed by OOK’S Technologies, by Mr Amook Vandan Yadav , Phone Number 8090848585 , Varanasi
That is it.
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